MetroVote中文阅读稿
本站摘要以 2024 年选区结果为基准，模拟 20,000 次：NDP 获多数占 52%、保守党 33%、无人多数 15%。模型假设民调两党差距误差约 4 个百分点，并加入全省、地区及选区波动。
网页阅读摘录
2026-10-21（温哥华时间）当时页面所见On the polls alone, the NDP wins a majority in 52% of them, the Conservatives in 33%, and nobody in 15%.
这是依赖模型假设的模拟频率，不是支持率或选举结果；其民调输入沿用上述截止日期疑问。虚拟币市场报价单列于原站，不纳入本站民调聚合。机构相对其他民调的差异估计也不能直接从单次领先幅度中扣除。
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- 记录修订
- df313682-8893-4ebc-9567-36ef4545f685
- 网页阅读时间
- 2026-10-22T00:45:03+00:00
- 页面位置
- 04 From votes to seats
这是一条当时网页阅读记录，本站没有保存整页 HTML，也没有原网页字节哈希。
各字段的原文依据
attribution, boundary, date, date_label, summary, title, topic · Vancouver Prediction Exchange
Polls are assumed to miss the final margin by about 4 points, and by more the further out the vote is.
2026-10-21（温哥华时间）阅读 · 04 From votes to seats — model assumptions
网页阅读记录 web:0c2e2dea-0e12-4d9a-bea9-1d60ea3f6b8f
打开对应来源 ↗attribution, boundary, date, date_label, summary, title, topic · Vancouver Prediction Exchange
Polls are every province-wide poll this year that could be checked against the pollster's own release, as of September 27, 2026.
2026-10-21（温哥华时间）阅读 · 07 About the data
网页阅读记录 web:6b8f8043-6fac-49d4-87c4-46ba08a48679
打开对应来源 ↗attribution, boundary, date, date_label, quote, summary, title, topic · Vancouver Prediction Exchange
On the polls alone, the NDP wins a majority in 52% of them, the Conservatives in 33%, and nobody in 15%.
2026-10-21（温哥华时间）阅读 · 04 From votes to seats
网页阅读记录 web:ad855a39-b1f0-45cd-89b4-0a5aa488f671
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