MetroVote 简体中文
公开试运行资料持续补充 · 名单日期见各选举页查看范围 ↗
SOURCE NOTE

MetroVote 民调平均:NDP 39.1%,保守党 43.8%,绿党 11.8%

专题研究依据计算截至 2026-10-24 · 最新调查结束 2026-10-23

下载正文与出处(TXT) →

中文阅读稿

本站摘要

截至 2026-10-24,纳入 7 家机构各自最新且调查结束不超过 14 天的全省民调。最新调查结束于 2026-10-23。权重为总未加权样本量的平方根乘以时间衰减,每 7 天减半;最后一步四舍五入至一位小数。保留其他党分母,不将三党重新归一化。

留存原文

来自对应快照的节选
The Conservative Party of BC 44%
MetroVote 计算;原始调查:ARI、INNOVATIVE、Mainstreet、Leger、Research Co.、Ipsos、Pallas;所引百分数短摘来自 Ipsos 原始单次调查,不是平均值。
这份证据能说明什么

描述性加权平均,不是席位或胜率预测,无合并误差区间,不直接校正机构偏差。各机构的已决定/倾向追问、样本访问方式与总体并不完全相同。Ipsos 及 Research Co. 采用10月23日新发布轮,旧轮及旧日期版平均保留;其余五份复用确切批准修订。Liaison 10月8日调查已超出14天窗;Pollara 原始书面表仍未取得,不纳入。本平均依赖七份调查确切修订,输入更正或撤回会使衍生平均失效;不回退到旧平均。

查看来源版本与定位
记录修订
dabd978c-6254-48ab-bef1-15cc9ed44b19
快照 SHA-256
f37d564aa61b2c8e30d3984dc292aa19087bb4a751f954159bafed49a9d6adc1
抽取版本
pymupdf-1.26.7-text-pages-v1
抽取文本范围
1426–1458(Unicode 字符,末端不含)
抽取文本 SHA
454e21475f76c01f293d34bca13d3a9fe74f53a183eab8f3c124b60d2cc6cd58

定位绑定确切快照、抽取版本与记录修订。原始取得时间未补证,不以导入时间替代。

各字段的原文依据

attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

Base: Weighted All Answering 1032

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Centre BC 2%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 40%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Decided Voters Conservative Party of BC 44%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 39%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

Unweighted Base: Decided Voters 1046

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

BC residents 18 years of age or older: n=1,072.

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

44% 39% 13% 2% 1% 1%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

Q2_(REDUCED BASE). Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow here in BC, which of the following parties' candidates would you be MOST LIKELY TO SUPPORT, OR LEAN TOWARDS? - REBASED ON DECIDED VOTERS

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Poll conducted by Research Co. on Politics in British Columbia - October 23, 2026

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

OneBC 2%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Mainstreet Research

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? [Undecideds removed] Results broken out by gender and age Gender Age Response Total Male Female Non-binary 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Eby, NDP 36.0% Doerkson, Conservative 41.7% Lowan, Green 14.6% Centre BC Party / Elenore Sturko 2.6% One BC / Dallas Brodie 5.0% Unweighted Freq 869 395 440 34 47 99 187 536 Weighted Freq 858 414 412 32 188 213 231 226

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

Decided voters (Weighted: n=916 ; Unweighted: n=937)

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, quote, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

The Conservative Party of BC 44%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

As you may know, a provincial election is scheduled for October 24 in British Columbia. If the provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your constituency? If you have already voted, please select the party you voted for.

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Mainstreet Research

British Columbia Survey Field Dates: October 17-18th, 2026 | N = 907 residents (18+) Weighted by region, and by gender, age & education within region · MoE ±3.3%, 19 times out of 20 mainstreetresearch.ca | [email protected] Margin of Error: ±3.3%, 19 times out of 20

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Another party / An independent candidate 1%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

Unweighted Base: All Respondents 1260

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

CentreBC 1%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · INNOVATIVE Research Group

5 The findings in this report are based on an online British Columbia survey conducted and sponsored by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. WHO? WHEN? HOW? HOW MANY? British Columbia adults (18+) Weighted regional profile • 59.5% Lower Mainland / Fraser Valley • 18.7% Vancouver Island • 21.8% Interior / North 1,153 unweighted respondents Final results weighted to n=1,000 Results reported using the weighted sample October 15–19, 2026 Online survey Conducted and sponsored by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. Survey Methodology: BC Sample BC-only pre-election public-opinion survey

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

OneBC 2%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

October 20-22, 2026

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

The BC Green Party 13%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

Some other party or candidate 1%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · INNOVATIVE Research Group

Decided Vote: BC Conservatives lead by 5 points among decided voters If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED] [asked of decided voters only; n=908] 2013-Mar 2013-Jun 2013-Sep 2013-Dec 2014-Mar 2014-Jun 2014-Sep 2014-Dec 2015-Mar 2015-Jun 2015-Sep 2015-Dec 2016-Mar 2016-Jun 2016-Sep 2016-Dec 2017-Mar 2017-Jun 2017-Sep 2017-Dec 2018-Mar 2018-Jun 2018-Sep 2018-Dec 2019-Mar 2019-Jun 2019-Sep 2019-Dec 2020-Mar 2020-Jun 2020-Sep 2020-Dec 2021-Mar 2021-Jun 2021-Sep 2021-Dec 2022-Mar 2022-Jun 2022-Sep 2022-Dec 2023-Mar 2023-Jun 2023-Sep 2023-Dec 2024-Mar 2024-Jun 2024-Sep 2024-Dec 2025-Mar 2025-Jun 2025-Sep 2025-Dec 2026-Mar 2026-Jun 2026-Sep BC United / BC Liberal NDP BC Conservative Green Other 31% 43% 12% 11% 2% 38% 43% 12% 7% 7 NDP Government (David Eby) NDP Government (John Horgan) Liberal Government (Christy Clark)

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

BC Green Party 10%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Vancouver, BC [October 23, 2026]

2026-10-24(温哥华时间)阅读 · 发布地点及日期

网页阅读记录 web:0eae6855-be09-4552-a6e1-9e344a995448

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Pallas Data

Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson have 43%. The BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 38%. The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 11%

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Provincial voting intention

网页阅读记录 web:23df7401-3d43-448d-997c-3016ab418d92

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from October 20 to 22, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,260 adult British Columbians were surveyed online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=801) and by phone with live interviewers (n=459) using both cellphones and landlines.

2026-10-24(温哥华时间)阅读 · About the Study:调查期、全样本及访问方式

网页阅读记录 web:2e58e210-1be5-4dc0-9e3c-92fe61cb31a9

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 21 to October 23, 2026, among 802 likely voters in British Columbia, including 722 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election.

2026-10-24(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology:调查期与全样本/决定者人数

网页阅读记录 web:64a923b9-ec43-46c4-8c2d-5ab97521ac4c

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Angus Reid Institute

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from October 15–19, 2026, among a randomized sample of 793 British Columbian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology and downloads

网页阅读记录 web:92c26982-f70b-40f3-be60-0a2abd08962d

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

10.23.26

2026-10-24(温哥华时间)阅读 · 标题下发布日期

网页阅读记录 web:a4c0a1fe-07db-4d05-95fb-2ded107ab337

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Pallas Data

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 10th-11th, 2026 among a sample of 513 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology

网页阅读记录 web:b141bcc8-a461-4904-b893-dcc118ee7b00

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Angus Reid Institute

Decided and leaning voters (n=723) 46% BC Conservatives 43% BC NDP BC Greens 8%Other 3% The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Provincial vote intention; Methodology and downloads

网页阅读记录 web:cf6524b1-5496-40f3-8caa-38d6035a8643

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

22 October 2026

2026-10-23(温哥华时间)阅读 · 标题下发布日期

网页阅读记录 web:d9d00cf5-69ec-4e06-9966-5b056ae56f71

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