MetroVote 简体中文
公开试运行资料持续补充 · 名单日期见各选举页查看范围 ↗
SOURCE NOTE

MetroVote 民调平均:NDP 39.0%,保守党 43.6%,绿党 11.6%

专题研究依据计算截至 2026-10-23 · 最新调查结束 10月22日

下载正文与出处(TXT) →

中文阅读稿

本站摘要

截至 2026-10-23,纳入 7 家机构各自最新且调查结束不超过 14 天的全省民调。最新调查结束于 10月22日。权重为总未加权样本量的平方根乘以时间衰减,每 7 天减半;最后一步四舍五入至一位小数。保留其他党分母,不将三党重新归一化。

留存原文

来自对应快照的节选
44% 39% 13% 2% 1% 1%
MetroVote 计算;原始调查:ARI、INNOVATIVE、Mainstreet、Leger、Research Co.、Ipsos、Pallas;所引百分数短摘来自 Leger 原始单次调查,不是平均值。
这份证据能说明什么

这是描述性加权平均,非席位或胜率预测,无合并误差区间,也不直接校正机构偏差。各家已决定/倾向的追问及访问对象并不完全相同。Leger 采用 10月20–22日新轮,旧轮留档;Liaison 10月8日调查距本次截止日已 15 天,移出窗口,原记录保留。其余六份沿用确切批准修订。Pollara 最新一期本轮未取得原始书面发布或表格,未纳入。输入与权重保存在本记录,并依赖各份调查的确切修订;来源更正会撤回衍生平均。

查看来源版本与定位
记录修订
395abed7-3a89-4ad0-af1f-3ae6289fa939
快照 SHA-256
90bbf3071f95a3e6c503c42c56bef0e076ea9f1ed5188702e045482538a7f132
抽取版本
pymupdf-1.26.7-text-pages-v1
抽取文本范围
3139–3159(Unicode 字符,末端不含)
抽取文本 SHA
802ff24faae2a5020966c86fe5fb53df75a503bedaaec4c54ae033774bfa3512

定位绑定确切快照、抽取版本与记录修订。原始取得时间未补证,不以导入时间替代。

各字段的原文依据

attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Metro Vancouver Fraser Valley Southern BC Northern BC Vancouver Island Total N=808 N=403 N=405 N=204 N=286 N=318 N=465 N=83 N=109 N=39 N=112 Total (Unweighted) N=808 N=400 N=408 N=197 N=285 N=326 N=440 N=86 N=119 N=44 N=119 Poll conducted by Research Co. on Politics in British Columbia - October 13, 2026 Sample Specifications British Columbia GENDER AGE REGION

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

BC residents 18 years of age or older: n=1,072.

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, quote, summary, title, topic · Leger

44% 39% 13% 2% 1% 1%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Mainstreet Research

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? [Undecideds removed] Results broken out by gender and age Gender Age Response Total Male Female Non-binary 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Eby, NDP 36.0% Doerkson, Conservative 41.7% Lowan, Green 14.6% Centre BC Party / Elenore Sturko 2.6% One BC / Dallas Brodie 5.0% Unweighted Freq 869 395 440 34 47 99 187 536 Weighted Freq 858 414 412 32 188 213 231 226

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

Decided voters (Weighted: n=916 ; Unweighted: n=937)

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Decided Voters Conservative Party of BC 44% 43% 45% 47% 43% 41% 45% 49% 44% 55% 34% 13% 83% 25% 17% 85% 14% BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 42% 42% 43% 31% 41% 52% 43% 43% 40% 39% 52% 81% 6% 12% 71% 5% 78% BC Green Party 8% 8% 7% 14% 8% 4% 7% 3% 10% 6% 10% 4% 4% 51% 8% 4% 5%

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Mainstreet Research

British Columbia Survey Field Dates: October 17-18th, 2026 | N = 907 residents (18+) Weighted by region, and by gender, age & education within region · MoE ±3.3%, 19 times out of 20 mainstreetresearch.ca | [email protected] Margin of Error: ±3.3%, 19 times out of 20

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · INNOVATIVE Research Group

5 The findings in this report are based on an online British Columbia survey conducted and sponsored by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. WHO? WHEN? HOW? HOW MANY? British Columbia adults (18+) Weighted regional profile • 59.5% Lower Mainland / Fraser Valley • 18.7% Vancouver Island • 21.8% Interior / North 1,153 unweighted respondents Final results weighted to n=1,000 Results reported using the weighted sample October 15–19, 2026 Online survey Conducted and sponsored by INNOVATIVE Research Group Inc. Survey Methodology: BC Sample BC-only pre-election public-opinion survey

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

October 20-22, 2026

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · INNOVATIVE Research Group

Decided Vote: BC Conservatives lead by 5 points among decided voters If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED] [asked of decided voters only; n=908] 2013-Mar 2013-Jun 2013-Sep 2013-Dec 2014-Mar 2014-Jun 2014-Sep 2014-Dec 2015-Mar 2015-Jun 2015-Sep 2015-Dec 2016-Mar 2016-Jun 2016-Sep 2016-Dec 2017-Mar 2017-Jun 2017-Sep 2017-Dec 2018-Mar 2018-Jun 2018-Sep 2018-Dec 2019-Mar 2019-Jun 2019-Sep 2019-Dec 2020-Mar 2020-Jun 2020-Sep 2020-Dec 2021-Mar 2021-Jun 2021-Sep 2021-Dec 2022-Mar 2022-Jun 2022-Sep 2022-Dec 2023-Mar 2023-Jun 2023-Sep 2023-Dec 2024-Mar 2024-Jun 2024-Sep 2024-Dec 2025-Mar 2025-Jun 2025-Sep 2025-Dec 2026-Mar 2026-Jun 2026-Sep BC United / BC Liberal NDP BC Conservative Green Other 31% 43% 12% 11% 2% 38% 43% 12% 7% 7 NDP Government (David Eby) NDP Government (John Horgan) Liberal Government (Christy Clark)

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Pallas Data

Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson have 43%. The BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 38%. The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 11%

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Provincial voting intention

网页阅读记录 web:23df7401-3d43-448d-997c-3016ab418d92

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from October 7 to 11, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,356 adult British Columbians were surveyed both online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=1,001) and by phone with live interviewers (n=350) using both cellphones and landlines.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · About the Study

网页阅读记录 web:4b8e32b2-94b3-4440-a7f0-79c5746fbf15

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Angus Reid Institute

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from October 15–19, 2026, among a randomized sample of 793 British Columbian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology and downloads

网页阅读记录 web:92c26982-f70b-40f3-be60-0a2abd08962d

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Pallas Data

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 10th-11th, 2026 among a sample of 513 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology

网页阅读记录 web:b141bcc8-a461-4904-b893-dcc118ee7b00

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Angus Reid Institute

Decided and leaning voters (n=723) 46% BC Conservatives 43% BC NDP BC Greens 8%Other 3% The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Provincial vote intention; Methodology and downloads

网页阅读记录 web:cf6524b1-5496-40f3-8caa-38d6035a8643

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Leger

22 October 2026

2026-10-23(温哥华时间)阅读 · 标题下发布日期

网页阅读记录 web:d9d00cf5-69ec-4e06-9966-5b056ae56f71

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Research Co.

Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 9 to October 11, 2026, among 808 likely voters in British Columbia, including 687 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election.

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Methodology

网页阅读记录 web:e075598e-a379-4ddb-b553-725d13ab37b1

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attribution, boundary, date, date_label, poll_average, summary, title, topic · Ipsos

The BC Conservatives now have the support of 43% (up 1) of decided voters, which puts them 5-points ahead of the BC NDP at 38% (down 2). The BC Greens are next best at 11% (up 1)

2026-10-21(温哥华时间)阅读 · Voter Support

网页阅读记录 web:ec32db5c-f367-40c3-ba22-91fe7429da97

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